Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 14.037580 16.026925 18.158305 20.607122 23.338160 26.285438 29.701810
2025-10-12 11.095985 13.812246 16.939194 20.786204 25.371389 30.640154 37.129993
2025-10-19 9.466443 12.464914 16.080077 20.724527 26.493980 33.383479 42.186775
2025-10-26 8.122020 11.262280 15.211677 20.487617 27.287643 35.687609 46.769898
2025-11-02 7.199305 10.442974 14.674233 20.518866 28.290755 38.167903 51.550266
2025-11-09 6.491908 9.815734 14.298917 20.681968 29.411031 40.788691 56.570466
2025-11-16 5.823684 9.159811 13.804068 20.606845 30.155328 42.894588 60.949290
2025-11-23 5.221392 8.530062 13.277371 20.420743 30.695831 44.706131 64.962514
2025-11-30 4.794092 8.112138 13.007261 20.556460 31.659233 47.097988 69.822518
2025-12-07 4.528515 7.912345 13.032205 21.104909 33.216025 50.353372 75.980608
2025-12-14 4.094622 7.403146 12.545098 20.844271 33.557151 51.875903 79.722974
2025-12-21 3.579269 6.710443 11.716384 19.996145 32.957013 51.987357 81.408576
2025-12-28 3.417016 6.601647 11.813119 20.607157 34.617702 55.504306 88.237112
2026-01-04 3.225132 6.423944 11.783396 21.010861 35.972863 58.617323 94.585483
2026-01-11 2.951888 6.073853 11.436779 20.867852 36.444272 60.392483 98.965928
2026-01-18 2.694800 5.727618 11.068179 20.658217 36.785918 61.965353 103.075531
2026-01-25 2.500291 5.479220 10.848345 20.679361 37.491594 64.114303 108.125939
2026-02-01 2.345508 5.292104 10.721502 20.847309 38.438048 66.664741 113.872470
2026-02-08 2.169320 5.045150 10.466535 20.770325 38.960448 68.545143 118.609993
2026-02-15 1.994372 4.783089 10.162865 20.583416 39.277467 70.092048 122.849857
2026-02-22 1.875306 4.625616 10.043667 20.719900 40.151281 72.568138 128.650021
2026-03-01 1.814212 4.586369 10.148224 21.272195 41.772797 76.328811 136.648173
2026-03-08 1.665761 4.340859 9.829883 21.009738 41.928587 77.634184 140.636898